Champions League draw: Premier League sides will struggle in Round of 16

By Ryan Bailey for Yahoo Sports.

Apparently, there are only three certainties in life: death, taxes and Arsenal facing Bayern Munich in the Champions League.

At Monday’s Champions League Draw in Nyon, The Gunners were drawn against the German giants, despite having a higher probability of facing Real Madrid and Sevilla. Even when they top their group, they can’t avoid a trip to Bavaria.

Arsenal fans will need no reminding that they met the Bavarians at the Round of 16 stage in 2013 and 2014—crashing out on both occasions—while they finished runner-up to Pep Guardiola’s charges in the group stages last season. At the conclusion of this round, they will have played one another eight times in the last five seasons.

Perhaps Arsene Wenger should consider buying property in Munich—it might work out cheaper than all those hotel bills.

Clearly, Arsenal do not have the best of luck when it comes to the Round of 16. They have been eliminated at this stage in the last six consecutive seasons, having faced Barcelona twice, Bayern twice, Milan and Monaco.

The North London side have a strong reputation for failing to make the final eight of the Champions League, while missing out on the Premier League title—and they’re following the script to a tee right now.

However, there are reasons for Gunners fans to be cheerful: Group A runners-up Paris Saint-Germain will meet Barcelona, which means a trip to the Camp Nou was avoided by virtue of topping the group (or, if you are a glass-half-empty kind of person, it means they were doomed either way).

Also, Carlo Ancelotti’s Bayern appear more vulnerable than the Guardiola iteration: they’ve been held to unexpected draws by Cologne, Hoffenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt in the league, and have been unable to put distance between themselves and RB Leipzig in the title race.

Bayern will improve by March, but if these two teams met today, there would be an excellent chance of Arsenal progressing…. to meet Barcelona or Real Madrid in the quarters.

The other English teams were also dealt difficult hands. Manchester City may have avoided Atletico Madrid, Borussia Dortmund and Juventus, but a draw against Monaco provides anything but safe passage to the next round. The Ligue 1 side have one of the best attacking lines in Europe at the moment, with Radamel Falcao back in resplendent form. If City defend anything like they did against Leicester at the weekend—with Aleksandar Kolarov adventuring up the field to leave poor John Stones horribly exposed—they will stumble.

And Champions League freshmen Leicester managed to keep out of the path of PSG, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid, yet they will face an arduous task in Sevilla. The Rojiblancos know a thing or two about continental dominance—albeit in their favorite competition, the Europa League—and they sit just one point behind Barcelona in the Liga standings.

Jorge Sampaoli’s side like to press high, which means they may be vulnerable to the Foxes’ counter attacks, while leaving space behind the defence for Jamie Vardy to do his thing. However, Leicester’s best chance of progression may be if Sevilla turn up for their game on a Thursday night instead, having not realized that one can play European soccer on Tuesdays and Wednesdays.

The other main talking point from the draw is Paris Saint-Germain’s aforementioned tie with Barcelona. This will be the third knockout stage meeting between the sides in the last five seasons, which only highlights the Groundhog Day nature of the competition. A rich club will be playing another rich club for the umpteenth time! Hurrah!

The Blaugrana have progressed each time they have faced the Parisians, and based on the domestic struggles of Unai Emery’s side, one would expect the same result in this instance.

The first legs of the Round of 16 will take place on February 14-15th and 21-22nd. Arsenal will come close but ultimately be eliminated on March 7-8th or 14-15th.