Senator Ted Cruz spoke about how he hates it when Republicans surrender their principles and values to the Democrats. He doesn’t want to become anything like the Democrats, yet he says, “[You are told] to give up on what you believe and become more like Democrats.” He strongly believes that each time Republicans have bowed down to the Democrats, they have lost.
He does not want to become a moderate Republican so does that mean his values align with the thoughts of extremist and overly conservative Republicans. They do! If the party wants to nominate someone with a moderate perspective on issues, he may not be someone they select to represent them in the upcoming elections of 2016. He has given his party the go-ahead, saying do not choose me if you want someone moderate. Do you think his approach to the general election is wrong? Let’s see what science has to say about it.
If you look at science, it says that moderate thinkers are rewarded, as the public does not favor extremists. Ted Cruz, if he wants to win this general election, may need to think of a new strategy, as your wish for your party to nominate someone more modrate may just come true. ‘Be careful what you wish for’ is a headline you do not want to see trending.
In fact, it is estimated that choosing a conservative Republican over a moderate republican is on a 23 percent decline, meaning the probability of someone like Cruz winning the general election is a far more unlikely choice.
In order to arrive at this estimate, researchers used electoral viability. Electoral viability is the compilation of data from the prediction markets. The data collected from there is then compared to the measure of ideological conservatism computed by Adam Bonica, a Stanford political scientist.
The Next President Market and the Betfair’s Republican Nomination Market are the two predictions used to generate the estimate. The markets forecasts are combined using the Bayes’ rule. See the example below to gain a better understating of how this was calculated:
(Cruz is elected president) x Probability (Cruz won GOP nomination | Cruz is elected president) / Probability (Cruz won GOP nomination)
The graph shows the correlation between the general election viability and ideology for the top GOP candidates using the formula.
The graph has pitted relative moderates, Kasich, Bush, and Christie with relative conservatives, Cruz, Rubio, and Fiorina. The person who finished at the bottom is none other than Ted Cruz who has taken a stringent and conservative stand on sensitive issues. The winner of the general election is Christie.
Even though Chris Christie is not doing so well in the general election as compared to others, but this can explained as well. The average voter will find Christie perfect for candidacy versus voters in the primary polls.
In short, if the Republican Party really wants the White House back after eight years of Democratic rule, they might need to select someone who is a more viable candidate in the voter’s eyes. If they select someone like Christie or Bush as their presidential nominee, they might have a chance of taking back the White House from the Democrats.
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