GBP Relief Rally Starts Early, Perhaps Too Early?

Fed Rate Increase? Or Not? Does Low Interest Rates Help Economic Growth?
The media and financial talking heads continue to spout on the odds of a federal funds rate increase either in June, July or whenever. The poor employment report for May seems to have caused most analysts to rule out a June rate increase. The Federal Reserve FOMC members keep opening their mouths with conflicting

Pressure Looms On The Market
Futures are way down in the pre market this Friday morning, nearly two weeks ahead of the Brexit vote that is making many followers tremble. Crude oil prices have surpassed the psychologically pleasing (relatively) $50 per barrel price, but

Most Important Market In The World Right Now: German Yields
On Wednesday we talked about the most important market in the world, right now.  It’s German bunds. The yield on the 10-year German bund had traded to new record lows, getting just basis points away from the zero line, and thus from crossing into negative yield territory for the 10-year German government bond.

The Soros Way
George Soros is back. I was reminded of that fact the moment I sat down in the chair at 30 Rock and the CNBC anchor started peppering me with questions about his trades. Frankly, I have no idea if Soros is right or wrong. Those of you who know me know that I never make trades longer than 24 hours forward. But I

Dollar Jumps, Triggers Reversals – Is this a Bottom?
Since the beginning of the month we’ve seen broad based gains in the U.S. dollar but as the greenback continued to fall and investors adjusted expectations for Fed tightening, currency traders have been yearning for a turn – and that’s exactly what we saw today.  U.S. stocks eased off year to date highs and the

Morning's Pre-Market Looks For A Pullback
You can practically set your watch by it markets climb to near historic levels, the next morning’s pre market looks for a pullback. In today’s case, following the rally this week that has brought the S&P 500 close to

Markets Today: Greenback Is Mostly Firmer, But Yen Is Firmer Still
The US dollar is posting modest upticks against most of the European currencies and the Canadian and Australian dollars.  However, it has fallen against the yen and taken out the recent low, leaving little between it and the May 3 low near JPY105.50.  The New Zealand dollar though is the strongest of the major

Second Chance On Bill Gross' 'Short Of A Lifetime'
We’ve talked about the bullish technical break occurring in stocks.  That’s continuing again today.   Remember, a week from this past Friday we talked about the G7 (G8) effect on stocks.  We stepped back through every annual meeting of world leaders since 2009.  And the results were clear.  If the communiqué from

Euro hits 1.14, NZD Soars on RBNZ
Daily FX Market Roundup 06.08.16 By Kathy Lien, Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management The European Central Bank kicked off its corporate bond-buying program today and investors applauded the move by driving the euro above 1.1400.  While this reaction may be counterintuitive especially as

FX Market: Chinese Imports Jump Lifting AUD and NZD
Market Drivers June 08, 2016 Chinese exports rise boosting commdollars UK MP/IP beats Nikkei 0.93% Dax -0.46% Oil $50/bbl Gold $1254/oz. Europe and Asia : CNY Trade 49.8B vs. 55.6B UK MP 2.3% vs. 0.0% UK IP 1.6% vs. -0.4% North America :  CAD Housing Starts 08:30 CAD Building Permits 08:30 USD JOLTS 10:00

India Putting Floor Beneath Oil Prices As Demand Continues To Soar
If oil prices are to continue their strong rally, they will have India to thank. India has emerged as the “star performer” of the oil markets, the IEA wrote in its May Oil Market Report. Oil demand growth in India has surpassed that of China, the long-time cornerstone of global commodity demand. Part of India’s

Benefits Of The Brexit: How A Brexit Might Actually Be Good For The U.K.
Britain goes to the polls on June 23 to decide whether the UK should remain a member of the European Union. Conventional wisdom suggests that a decision to leave would be bad for Britain, the European Union, and even the United States. In this  recent article, I looked at the downside of a Brexit particularly for

Bullish Sentiment Prevails
Good news for the markets Tuesday came from crude oil prices , which surpassed the psychological $50 per barrel threshold for the first time since 11 months ago. Brent crude, the benchmark of global oil prices, hit $52.19 while

FedSpeak: Lost in Translation
Bill Murray, who has never been one to be stumped for words, is considered to be a veritable master of improvisation. Few appreciate that the star comedian and accomplished actor has also proven himself to be a fair philosopher. On July 25, 1980, exactly three months and 10 days after Jean Paul Sartre’s death, the

Productivity And Unit Labor Costs Data Weak
This morning prior to the opening bell, the final read on Q1 Productivity and Unit Labor Costs came in at 0.6 percent in line with expectations and unchanged from the last quarter, which was revised from +1.0 percent. Unit

FX: Fat Finger Spike in Cable, Aussie Climbs Post RBA
Market Drivers June 07, 2016 RBA leaves rates on hold Cable spikes 100+ points Remain regains lead Nikkei 0.58% Dax 1.85% Oil $49/bbl Gold $1243/oz. Europe and Asia : AUD RBA rate on hold 1.75% EUR GE IP 0.8% vs. 0.7% EUR GDP 0.6% vs. 0.5% North America :  USD Non Farm Productivity 8:30 CAD Ivey PMI 10:00 It

Rate Chances In Trouble
Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen speaks today at 12 30 ET. This long awaited speech was originally expected to be some measure of announcement that the Fed would raise interest rates in June. Now, with the absolutely anemic 38K

Week Ahead: Pattern of Last Week Just Adds to the Gloomy Outlook for Stocks
There was an interesting pattern that emerged in stocks at the end of last week. On Wednesday, Thursday, and again on Friday the S&P 500 opened lower and weakened significantly in early trading, then spent the rest of the day recovering lost ground. A look at the 5 minute chart below shows how noticeable that pattern

Dollar Slips – Yellen Less Committed to Summer Hike
The U.S. dollar remains under pressure at the start of this new trading week.  Janet Yellen’s speech in Philadelphia was the most anticipated event risk for the dollar and while it failed to ignite fireworks in the greenback it gave investors very little reason to buy the greenback. Going into her speech, many

Stocks Are Technically Breaking Out
We talked last week about the employment data.  It was broadly thought to be disappointing. Even though the headline unemployment rate dropped to 4.7%, the job creation number was weak.   So stocks fell sharply following Friday’s numbers.  The dollar fell. And Treasuries rose (yields lower).  All of this

FX Market: Leave Leads in 3 Polls as Cable Tumbles
Market Drivers June 06, 2016 Cable tumbles on Brexit polls Markets tread water ahead of Yellen Nikkei -0.37% Dax 0.30% Oil $49/bbl Gold $1243/oz. Europe and Asia: AUD Job adverts 2.4% vs. -0.8% North America: USD Yellen speaks 12:30 Cable tumbled out of bed on the first trading day of the week gapping lower

Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP): Jobs Won't Matter But Wages Will
Market Drivers June 03, 2016 USD/JPY tests 108.50 but rebounds UK PMI Services beats Nikkei 0.48% Dax 0.54% Oil $49/bbl Gold $1213/oz. Europe and Asia : EUR Retail Sales 0.0% vs. 0.2% EUR PMI Composite 53.1 vs. 52.9 GBP UK PMI Services 53.5 vs. 52.3 North America :  USD NFPs 08:30 CAD Trade 8:30 It’s been a

5% Unemployment Is For Dummies
The unemployment rate is supposed to be a measure to determine employment slack. Full employment is widely accepted to be the point where the non-employed worker pool has declined as far as it can without fueling inflation. I have enjoyed listening to the pundits respond to Donald Trump’s unemployment assertions

Why $50 Oil Makes Sense
Crude oil’s fundamentals don’t support further gains from here. Oil markets are currently near an equilibrium, and the situation is likely to continue, unless the supply outages are sorted out. The rumors about a likely production freeze by OPEC and Russia brought the oil bulls out from hibernation in February

Disappointing Employment Report
The much anticipated employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) fell well short of estimates this morning 38,000 new jobs was all the U.S. economy in the month of May. This is more than 100K shy of

Brexit Could Lead To Serious Economic Consequences For The U.K.
April 15 marked the official launch of campaigns on whether the United Kingdom should stay or leave the European Union. Since then economists and politicians have argued the potential impacts a Brexit would have on the global economy. A number of recent opinion polls have reignited concerns that voters are leaning

Dollar Tanks on Epic Jobs Miss, What's Next
Dollar: Tanks on Epic Jobs Miss Friday’s extraordinarily weak non-farm payrolls report sent the U.S. dollar tumbling against all of the major currencies.  We haven’t seen a move this strong in 2 months for EUR/USD and more than a month in USD/JPY.  The 2 year Treasury yield dropped by the largest amount since

Buying The Dip On Jobs Data
As we discussed earlier in the week, market participants are trained to be fixated on the monthly jobs data.  That was evident in today’s market reaction, as it always is.  The payroll number, the number professional investors have been trained to trade, was weak this morning.  The unemployment number, on the other

Market May Be Very Wrong On Fed
In the middle of June we have perhaps the two biggest events of the year. On June 15, the Fed will decide on rates.  And hours later, that Wednesday night, the Bank of Japan will follow with their decision on policy. This is really the perfect scenario for the Fed.  The biggest impediment in their hiking

ADP Data Raised Fed Hike Chances
This morning’s Automatic Data Processing, or ADP  ADP , results for May has come out slightly ahead of expectations at 173K private sector jobs for the month. April’s total was revised upward 10K to 166K. This looks to continue

FX Market: Japanese Prime Minister Delays Sales Tax, USD/JPY Drops
Market Drivers June 01, 2016 Abe delays tax hike USDJPY drops through 110.00 EZ PMI in line Nikkei -1.62% Dax 0.09% Oil $48/bbl Gold $1218/oz. Europe and Asia : AUD GDP 3.1% vs. 2.7% EUR EZ Final PMI 51.5 in line GBP UK PMI 50.1 vs. 49.9 GBP Mortgage Approvals 66.3K vs. 68.7K North America :  USD ISM

Dollar Moves Lower, Sterling Can't Get Out of Its Own Way
The US dollar is trading with a heavier bias to start the month of June.    Weaker stocks and firmer bonds has seen the yen rise the most, while sterling’s losses have been extended after an ICM telephone survey showed a small lead for those favoring Brexit.   The Nikkei fell 1.6%, the largest loss since May 2

Why Is This Correction Different From All Other Corrections?
By Avi Gilburt,  ElliottWaveTrader.net After reading the title, you may expect me to say something like “let my metals go.” And, you are likely quite right. So rather than afflicting you with the plague of darkness, allow me to illuminate how I view the market as it currently resides. How Do Corrections Develop