GBP Relief Rally Starts Early, Perhaps Too Early?

Why the Oil Majors Face Inevitable Decline
The oil majors are at a crossroads and there are growing signs that their business model can no longer last. The combined effects of cheap oil, the increasing difficulty in expanding bookable reserves, and ever-tightening environmental regulation on “unburnable carbon” leave the largest oil companies not only with

A Flurry of Economic Data To Determine Markets Movements
May 2016 marked the third straight month in the green for S&P 500, though markets fell back Tuesday afternoon to close down a tad. But with many more results from economic data due today and through the remainder of

Markets Focus On A Slew of Economic Reports
On this final trading day of the month of May, we await a slew of economic data this week, both domestically from Consumer Confidence today to the big non farm payroll jobs report on Friday and globally from Chinese

3 Years Of Painful Cuts Sets Markets Up For Serious Supply Crunch
Total global oil production could decline for the next several years in a row as scarce new sources of supply come online. According to data from Rystad Energy, overall global oil output will fall this year as natural depletion overwhelms all new sources of supply. But the deficit will only widen in the years ahead

G7 Summit: Risk of a Global Crisis, Maritime Disputes and the Dollar
The G7 heads of state summit has begun.  The host, Japan’s Prime Minister Abe began with doom and gloom.  Accounts suggest he warned of the riskof a crisis on the scale of Lehman if appropriate policies are not taken.  It is not clear to whom Abe was addressing.  It may not have been the other heads of state. It

Dollar Firms As Traders Await Yellen
The US dollar is winding down the week on a firm note, but still in a consolidative mode.   The euro and yen and Australian dollar are well within yesterday’s ranges while sterling and the Canadian dollar pushing through yesterday’s lows.   Asian shares were mostly higher, though Chinese markets closed with

The Huge Recession Which Never Came
When I lived in the corporate world, we used global and domestic transport to forecast the economy. The reason was that transport led economic activity. Rail is a particularly useful crystal ball as it is a prime mover of goods to and from ports (international trade) – as well as the domestic movement of goods. The

Why The Bust For Offshore Drillers Might Last Another 2 Years
Statoil cancelled a contract for a drillship with Seadrill, which it had intended to use for drilling operations in the Atlantic, near Newfoundland. The cancellation is the second drillship contract to be terminated for Seadrill, coming shortly after Exxon canceled a contract for its drillship, West Capella, that

Investors Waiting for Yellen's Comments
Stocks are indicated to start today’s session in the green, which would follow the modestly lower close on Thursday and stronger gains earlier in the week. There is a lot of attention on today’s Janet Yellen speech at Harvard

The G7 Effect On Stocks: It's Big
As we head into the Memorial Day weekend, we want to talk today about the G7 meeting that took place this week Japan, and how these meetings tend to effect financial markets (namely the key barometer for global markets in this environment, U.S. stocks).  It’s a big effect. If we look back at the past seven annual

Bull Market: Why You Should Fear Missing Out
If you’ve been reading our notes over the past few months, you’ll know we’ve thought a big global sentiment shift is underway that can be the fuel for a boom-like period for global economies and investments. We think it’s here. We charted very closely the risks of the oil price bust.  We thought central banks would

Oil Rally Set to Continue as EIA Confirms Inventory Draw
Official U.S. crude oil inventory data released on Wednesday morning confirms a significant drop in stockpiles, showing a drawdown of 4.2 million barrels from the previous week. “At 537.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at historically high levels for this time of year,” the Energy Information

Why I Expect Oil To Tumble
Marshall Gittler, Head of Investment research,  FXPRIMUS.com The oil price has been rising since February and recently hit the highest level in almost a year. But I think it’s in for a tumble. I expect the price to fall back, probably into the $30/bbl range, in the not-too-distant future. That’s because I expect

Will Crude Rally Sustain?
Stocks are on track for starting today’s session modestly in the green, the third straight day of gains if sustained through the end of the session. A batch of mixed economic data and oil prices crossing the $50 mark

Investors, Stop Fiddling
By Lawrence Solomon Investors consistently try to out think the market – for instance, selling to avoid losses when they somehow think they know a security is likely to decline, or jumping into a security when they somehow think they know it is likely to increase. The amazing element of this investment

Positive Momentum Likely to Prevail
The major indexes are on track to start today’s session in the green, which would follow the market’s impressive gains on Tuesday. Positive momentum in oil prices is giving today’s market action a favorable nudge. The data docket is

Quantitative Easing and the Corruption of Corporate America
The art of brevity was not lost on Abraham Lincoln. It is that brevity in all its glory that shines through in what endures as one of the most beautiful testaments to the art of oration: The Gettysburg Address rounds out at 272 resounding words. The nation’s 16 th President humbly predicted that the world would

Stock Trade Idea: If You're Feeling Bearish, This Stock Might Be For You
When my overall view of the market is bearish, as regular readers will be aware is the case right now, it poses a dilemma. For a combination of technical and fundamental reasons that I outlined last week , I believe that we will see a correction, possibly a quite severe one, before too long. The nature of the

Rate Uncertainty Likely to Impact
Stocks are modestly up this morning, but lack conviction given the Fed uncertainty. The New Home sales report coming out a little later is the only notable economic reading today on an otherwise light data calendar. The market is

Second Half For Stocks Could Be Very Good
As we head into Memorial Day weekend and stocks (S&P 500) have crossed back over into positive territory again for the year, we want to step back and acknowledge the relative calm in global markets and economies, compared to where we stood just three months ago, and talk about how different the second half is setting

How The Investing Climate Has Been Evolving
The US dollar’s weakness in recent months, despite negative interest rates in Europe and Japan likely had many contributing factors.   These factors include shifting views of Fed policy, weaker US growth, the recovery in commodity prices, including oil, gold and iron ore, and market positioning. A new phase began

EZ PMI Data At 16 Month Lows
Market Drivers May 23, 2016 EZ Flash PMI hit 16 month lows Treasury Report suggests 500K job loss off Brexit Nikkei -0.49% Dax 0.05% Oil $48/bbl Gold $1251/oz. Europe and Asia: EUR EZ Flash PMI 52.9 vs. 53.2 North America: USD PMI Manufacturing 9:45 The dollar was weaker at the start of week’s trade

How Unit Economics Can Place Value On Tech Startups
You have probably heard that there is a growing problem in Silicon Valley. Startups are being valued too high, stay private for too long and have soaring burn rates. But one thing continues to be overlooked; unit economics. It is a basic concept that looks at the direct revenues and costs associated with a particular

Viacom & CBS in Focus
Levels of intrigue abound in the latest installment of the Viacom (VIA) saga. No, not the latest summer blockbuster from Paramount Pictures or irreverent TV program from CBS or Comedy Central, but the top brass of the company itself.

Investors Embrace This ETF To Fight Inflation
Last week, the federal government reported that the core Consumer Price Index in April rose by 2.1% year-over-year, above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. There has been a recent string of reports that inflation is creeping higher. In tandem with that trend is the popularity of one ETF that is designed to combat the

What's Up With Industrial Production?
This past week, the market was treated by relatively good industrial production data from the Federal Reserve. Headline seasonally adjusted Industrial Production (IP)  increased  0.7 % month-over-month but was still  contracting  1.1 % year-over-year. The question for today – is this the beginning of recovery of