Here are the latest reports from The New York Times ‘Upshot’.
The 2016 Race: The Biggest Danger for Donald Trump: Florida
The G.O.P. might not be able to withstand the state’s Hispanic growth any longer as polls show he’s not making gains with white voters.
The 2016 Race: Clinton Case in Context: When Politics and Prosecutions Overlap
The email investigation is highly unusual and may not fit previous patterns, but prior cases suggest prosecutors are not immune to partisan influence.
The New Health Care: Helpless to Prevent Cancer? Actually, a Lot Is in Your Control
Many cases of cancer are preventable, studies show, but this has inflamed as much as it has assuaged people’s fears.
Disunion: Why the European Union Could Break if It Does Not Learn to Bend
More responsiveness and foresight on issues like immigration will probably be needed to head off other drastic outcomes like “Brexit.”
Economic View: How a Quest by Elites Is Driving ‘Brexit’ and Trump
Unlike the public, economists seem more concerned about the size of the pie than whether everyone gets a slice.
The 2016 Race: How Polling Can Go Wrong
Pre-election polls show Democrats doing better among white voters than the exit polls do.
Aftershocks: An Index of Uncertainty Surges After ‘Brexit’
Quantifying the tremors that the British vote has spread, not just in Britain but across the Atlantic.
The 2016 Race: If Donald Trump Lost, Would He Concede?
Conspiracy theories are especially popular around election time, and does the G.O.P. really need to win over Hispanics to win the presidency?
The 2016 Race: How Trump’s Campaign Could Redraw Voter Allegiances
A message radically different from what Republicans have ever advanced has considerable appeal to white working-class Democrats.
The 2016 Race: Donald Trump’s Economic Nostalgia
Opposing trade deals is disconnected from the decades-long direction of the United States economy.
Moment of Truth: How Much Will ‘Brexit’ Stress Banks? Some Ways to Tell
Governments, since the financial crisis of 2008, have sought to limit the threat that large banks pose to the wider economy. Now comes the test.
Aftershocks: Is ‘Brexit’ Europe’s Lehman Brothers Moment?
Britain’s vote and Lehman’s collapse both upended what people thought they knew about how the world worked.
Economic Trends: ‘Brexit’ Is Locking In the Forces That Already Haunt the Global Economy
Those forces have self-reinforcing, vicious-cycle dimensions that make it a perilous time for the world’s economies.
Best of the Web: Stuff We Liked: Games With Thrones and Parking
Data visualization for “Game of Thrones” fans, the real cost of free parking and an app that lets you avoid left turns.
The New Health Care: Low Prices for Vaccines Can Come at a Great Cost
Sometimes raising the prices of drugs makes sense to prevent shortages.
Political Calculus: Right-Wing Populism Is Prevailing in Left-Wing Strongholds Around the World
An electorate split between the people who have benefited from globalization and those who haven’t.
The 2016 Race: Exit Polls, and Why the Primary Was Not Stolen From Bernie Sanders
It’s true that he did better in exit polls than in actual elections. But the problem was the flaws in those polls, not a conspiracy.
Aftershock: ‘Brexit’ Hits U.S. Stock Market Harder Than an Election
The sharp fall as of Friday morning reflected both the surprise factor and the economic implications for the United States.
Market Reaction: How ‘Brexit’ Will Affect the Global Economy, Now and Later
Stock market declines aren’t too worrying, but a recession is a major risk in Britain and something of a risk in the rest of Europe and the U.S.
Market Turmoil: What to Watch for in Trading After Shock of ‘Brexit’
Among other things, this will be a test of whether the banking overhauls introduced after the 2008 crash are equal to the challenges ahead.
Economic View: Tenure Extension Policies That Put Women at a Disadvantage
Men who took parental leave used the extended tenure clock to publish their research, but there was no parallel rise in the output of female economists.
Political Calculus: Why the Surprise Over ‘Brexit’? Don’t Blame the Polls
The referendum joins a long list of election forecasting errors. But this one was a bit different: It was not a big polling failure.
Stay or Go: Brexit and the Risks of Democracy
Referendums can distill complex issues into a simplistic choice. But sometimes the people just need to be heard.
The 2016 Race: Why Isn’t Donald Trump Campaigning More in Swing States?
Given his strength among white working-class voters, Pennsylvania seems like fertile ground. And getting there doesn’t cost much.
The 2016 Race: Hillary Clinton’s Message: Yes, the Economy Is Messed Up. But I Can Fix It.
She embraced the economic discontent that has fueled the rise of her opponents, while presenting herself as the person most qualified to address it.
The 2016 Race: Don’t Assume Donald Trump’s Supporters Believe His Promises
His campaign promises seem impossible to keep, but voters who like him might be taking that into account.
The Beautiful Game: Euro 2016: Which Third-Place Teams Will Qualify for the Round of 16?
A team-by-team breakdown of how things could unfold on Wednesday.
The 2016 Race: Would a Trump Presidency Mean Economic Disaster? Let’s Take a Look
A report from Moody’s Analytics is useful more for its general conclusions about the direction of the economy than in its specific predictions.
A Failure to Evaluate: For-Profit-College Fiasco: Why a Watchdog Needs a Watchdog
An accreditor that allowed mismanaged for-profits to exist now faces extinction.
Stay or Go: Telling Sign? Many Supporters of ‘Brexit’ Expect Defeat
Research suggests that people’s predictions of a voting outcome are often more accurate than their stated intentions.
Economic Trends: Would America Have Fewer Missing Workers if It Were More Like France?
Fewer prime-age American men are in the labor force than in many other advanced countries, a possible downside of a flexible U.S. job market.
The 2016 Race: Yes, Political Ads Are Still Important, Even for Donald Trump
He has started off slowly with ads, but there’s a reason he won’t skip them, even though the effects are small and short-lived.
The New Health Care: Why You Should Exercise (No, Not to Lose Weight)
If the effects of exercise could be put in a pill and prescribed, it would be rightly hailed as a wonder drug. So get off the couch.
Economic View: One Economic Sickness, Five Diagnoses
While many would argue there are serious problems within the United States economy, there is no consensus among economists on the root causes.
Stay or Go: Why Financial Markets Are Calm and Carrying On Regarding ‘Brexit’
Markets tend to be very efficient, except when they’re not. And those are the times that can be brutal for investors.
The New Health Care: Long-Term Mistrust From Tuskegee Experiment: A Study Seems to Overstate the Case
Researchers make a leap to causality, but it’s not as if racism stopped: We should be careful about focusing on a single incident in the past.
Public Health: Adults May Be Dying Younger, but Children Are Getting Healthier
The health gap between the rich and the poor is far less stark among children than older people, which offers hope to reverse a worrying trend.
Economic Trends: Why the ‘Brexit’ Warnings Don’t Seem to Be Working in Britain
Gloomy forecasts of pain from a breakup have not resonated with British voters amid a generally sunny economy.
Public Health: Soda Tax Passes in Philadelphia. Advocates Ask: Who’s Next?
The question is if this “watershed” vote presages similar measures around the country.
The 2016 Race: Bernie Sanders and the Terms of Surrender
What does he want in return for endorsing Hillary Clinton? And is he realistic in thinking he can get it?
Balancing Act: The Fed Is Learning Just How Hard the Exit From Easy Money Will Be
If markets could talk, they’d be saying to Janet Yellen: “We don’t think you’ll raise interest rates as much as you say you will.”
Public Health: Yes, Obamacare Premiums Are Going Up
A new study shows health plans are asking for rate increases twice as high as last year’s. Two health reporters discuss what it means for the future.
Fear Itself: There’s a Disconnect in Americans’ Worry About Terrorism
Despite expressing fears, people keep going to concerts and other public events, and overseas vacations are increasing.
Economic Trends: Are Financial Markets Too Complacent About the Global Economy?
Despite plenty of reasons to reflect anxiety, they’ve remained fairly calm.
Economic Trends: European Interest Rates Are Not as Low as They Look
Negative rates may seem strange, but when adjusting for inflation, companies are still not getting cheap loans.
Measuring Game: Euro Soccer: Just as Good as the World Cup, if Not Better
Going by the data, the Euros can easily match the quality of the world’s most prominent sports tournament.
Guns and the Law: How Gun Laws Change After Mass Shootings
Research finds that the response is the opposite of what you might expect.
The 2016 Race: Why Gun Control Probably Gives Donald Trump an Edge
It’s a populist wedge issue with the potential to appeal to working-class Democrats while not alienating people who lean Republican.
Outlier: Compare These Gun Death Rates: The U.S. Is in a Different World
In most advanced countries, gun homicides are as rare as deaths from falling tree limbs or plane crashes.
The New Health Care: The Downside of Merging Doctors and Hospitals
Consolidation is not necessarily a solution, particularly regarding prices, for a system in which various providers don’t talk to one another.
A Numbers Game: Which Labor Market Data Should You Believe?
Two important measures of how the job market is doing seem to point in opposite directions.
Economic View: The Overinflated Fear of Being Priced Out of Housing
It’s easy to understand how worries spread, but the historical record suggests such fears are generally exaggerated.
The 2016 Race: How We Measured Voters
The actual results look a lot more like the electorate in the Current Population Survey or voter file than in the exit polls.
A Peek Under the Hood: How We Built Our Model
The Upshot’s estimate of voting patterns among various demographic groups has both strengths and weaknesses. Here’s a look.
The 2016 Race: There Are More White Voters Than People Think. That’s Good News for Trump.
Better data about the 2012 election suggests the electorate is not as diverse as previously thought. This has implications for November.
Economic Trends: The Stock Market Is Optimistic, So What’s Your Excuse?
Investors have felt plenty of anxiety about the elections, interest rates, China, Europe and jobs. But the market has rebounded to near-record heights.
Public Health: Novel Strategy Puts Big Soda Tax Within Philadelphia’s Reach
Presenting the tax as a revenue source rather than a nanny-state public health dictate brings a measure one vote away from reality.
The 2016 Race: Superdelegates Sink Bernie Sanders. Will He Sink Them?
A weekly politics chat includes discussion of whether Mr. Sanders will drop out — and maybe take down a delegate system with him.
Money, Jobs and Sovereignty: Myth vs. Reality Ahead of ‘Brexit’ Vote
As Britain prepares to vote on June 23 on European Union membership, both sides of the debate warn of dangerous outcomes. We debunk, or back up, their claims.
Question of Identity: Why Britain Is Edging Toward ‘Brexit’
Sometimes, one issue can have a big influence on an election. Immigration may turn out to be that issue on June 23.
The 2016 Race: Pledges Pushed Hillary Clinton Over the Magic Number
Mrs. Clinton went over the top with the support of around 20 additional superdelegates, but it seems she would have preferred to win with votes in Tuesday’s elections.
The New Health Care: The U.S. Is Failing in Infant Mortality, Starting at One Month Old
The United States does worse than about two dozen other industrialized nations in this crucial measure of public health.
The 2016 Race: Why a Long Count in California Would Hurt Bernie Sanders (Even if He Wins)
Hillary Clinton is expected to receive good news early in the night, including an early California lead that may not hold up.
Economic Trends: If the Economy Is Sinking, Policy Makers Are Far From Prepared
It seems hard to think of a time in recent U.S. history when policy makers have had so little room to maneuver in helping the economy.
Room to Grow: Houses Keep Getting Bigger, Even as Families Get Smaller
Although the pace of the increase has slowed a bit, the trend continues: more square feet, more bedrooms, more bathrooms.
Economic View: More Time to Unwind, Unless You’re a Woman
There is a lot of discussion about income inequality, but issues surrounding the inequality of work may be no less important.
Economic Trends: The Jobs Report Is Not Quite as Terrible as It Looks
A slightly longer-run perspective offsets some short-run gloom, but the numbers suggest the economy is slowing.
Real Estate: Four Not-So-Obvious Things to Consider When Deciding to Buy or Rent
When it’s a close call, weighing these factors can help anyone make a smarter housing decision.
The 2016 Race: How the Democratic Race Will Probably End
Hillary Clinton will most likely be named the presumptive nominee before the polls even close in California on Tuesday.
Public Health: Expanding Medicare Would Solve Some Problems, Create New Ones
The Obamacare marketplace would inevitably be affected by the move, in ways that are tricky to predict.
The 2016 Race: Putting Donald Trump’s $1 Million for Veterans in Context
A welcome donation to a sector often overlooked by the very wealthy, but far outstripped by some other billionaires’ recent contributions.
Cost of College: Hidden Side of the College Dream: Mediocre Graduation Rates
An abysmally low percentage of those students who need federal loans manage to earn a degree.
The 2016 Race: Bernie Sanders and Rigged Elections: Sometimes You Just Lose
A weekly politics chat looks ahead to the California contest, but also looks back at whether the electoral system was fair to Mr. Sanders.
The New Health Care: Why It’s Not Time to Panic About Cellphones and Cancer
Behind recent dramatic headlines, a small and not terribly impressive rat study.
The New Health Care: Drug Prices Too High? Sometimes, They’re Not Costly Enough
For some of the most important drugs, the prices may be too low, giving rise to shortages.
Barriers to Entry: What History Teaches Us About Walls
Donald Trump may want to take note: World history is full of examples of engineering thwarted by goal-oriented rank amateurs.
Economic View: Waiting in Line for the Illusion of Security
Two economists see the growing problem of interminably long lines at airport security checkpoints as an unnecessary economic one.
The New Health Care: Take Low-Salt Advice With a Grain of You Know What
A new study adds to the research suggesting that diets very low in salt are not beneficial for everyone, and may in fact be harmful for some.
The 2016 Race: Donald Trump and Your 401(k): Imminent Danger?
Should ordinary investors be worried that Wall Street does not seem worried about a Trump presidency?
The 2016 Race: Explaining Hillary Clinton’s Lost Ground in the Polls
Mrs. Clinton has struggled because of her inability to consolidate the supporters of Bernie Sanders.
Urban Fabric: Readers’ Turn: Zoning and the City
Continuing the discussion about how building codes have shaped, and failed to shape, New York City.
The 2016 Race: When Elections Aren’t About the Economy
In some ways, a sleepy economy is making this presidential race more exciting.
The 2016 Race: Bernie Sanders Does Better vs. Trump? Wouldn’t Be Prudent to Assume That
A weekly politics chat also looks at John McCain’s tough re-election campaign and the damage Mitt Romney could do to Mr. Trump with a third-party run.
The New Health Care: Sorry, There’s Nothing Magical About Breakfast
Don’t feel bad if you’d rather skip it. Studies have not proved its importance.
Public Health: It Isn’t Easy to Figure Out Which Foods Contain Sugar
Many consumers will be surprised to learn of the added sugars in products that are generally thought of as healthy.
Economic View: Are You Successful? If So, You’ve Already Won the Lottery
People tend to underestimate the role sheer luck plays in guiding our career trajectories, and recognizing this can have implications for public policy.
The 2016 Race: Big Picture With Trump vs. Clinton Is All in the Framing
In times of gains, people tend to be risk-averse. (Advantage, Clinton). In times of loss, they tend to be risk-accepting. (Advantage, Trump.)
An Age of Miracles: Readers’ Turn: The Inventions That Mattered Most
Stone arrowheads? Birth control? The bicycle?
The 2016 Race: Donald Trump and Conspiracy Theories: What a Poll in 2011 Signaled
Mr. Trump led a G.O.P. poll five years ago, showing a willingness and ability to mine the anger and resentments of Republicans.
The 2016 Race: Is Traditional Polling Underselling Donald Trump’s True Strength?
He is doing better in online general election polls, but there’s no reason to assume those polls are better than live-interview ones.
Education Inequality: Why Poor Districts Receive Less Government School Funding Than Rich Ones
The new secretary of education has angered entrenched interests, including teachers, as he tries to help low-income schoolchildren.
Public Health: Why Single-Payer Health Care Would Probably Still Be Expensive
To match the costs in other countries would require paying doctors and nurses far less and using fewer new and high-tech treatments.
The New Health Care: You Mean I Don’t Have to Show Up? The Promise of Telemedicine
Remote care can bring services to rural locations, and studies show the care is not worse than in-person treatment.
The 2016 Race: Could Elizabeth Warren Have Beaten Hillary Clinton?
A weekly Upshot conversation leads off with a hypothetical: Given Bernie Sanders’s strong run, could Ms. Warren have done even better?
Economic View: What Was the Greatest Era for American Innovation? A Brief Guided Tour
Which was a more important innovation: indoor plumbing, jet air travel or mobile phones?
Gender Identity: The Search for the Best Estimate of the Transgender Population
Knowing the numbers is important for a variety of policy reasons, but firm answers are elusive.
Company Causes: Google’s Payday Loan Move Exemplifies New Corporate Advocacy
The company joins other powerful players like Facebook and PayPal in taking a stand on social and political issues, but deepens concerns about overreach.
The 2016 Race: What We Can Learn From Donald Trump’s Unreleased Tax Returns
In an economic theory of disclosure, only those with the worst secrets choose not to reveal their returns.
Tax Policy: Donald Trump’s Plan to Raise Taxes on Rich: Just Kidding
The candidate backs away from remarks he made over the weekend that seemed to reverse his earlier stance.
What Are the Odds?: Donald Trump, Leicester City, and Why Predicting the Future Is So Hard
Anyone can simply be unlucky, but we need to be aware of our systematic biases and errors.
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