Fed Won’t Raise Rate Prior to the General Election?


Here is the latest Economic News from the NASDAQ.

Fed Wont Raise Rate Prior to the General Election?
Uh… OK… This is exactly what I feared would hnasdaq.com/newsappen on a date like August 19th… We’re discussing the stock market its trends, its distractions… and… WHAT? The Fed has already tipped its hand

Currencies: Aussie Takes A Hit

Oil Prices Continue To Rise On Hollow Saudi Comments
Last week Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister said that the large number of short positions on crude have caused prices to fall, even though the market is already rebalancing itself. This statement immediately led to frantic covering, which pushed prices higher. This is just the latest confirmation that Saudi Arabia has

Are Employment Numbers To Be Believed?
The problem I have with employment data is that it cannot be validated with any precision in real time. You would think in 2016 with internet connectivity there should be no issue assembling accurate data in real time. Yet, the BLS uses two forms of ESTIMATING employment that are straight out of the dark ages: the

Betting On A Down Year For Stocks Is A Bad Bet
We’re eight months into the year.  When we opened 2016, the broader mood about markets was still gunshy of another (crisis) shoe to drop. Wall Street was, on average, almost reluctantly, forecasting about an average year for stocks (about 8%).  We’re about there already.  The hedge fund community, by nature

Walmart Up, Jobless Claims Down
Market futures are down slightly again this morning, though they started this way Wednesday morning, only to turn around on firmer language from Fed minutes released from the FOMC’s most recent meeting. Also, Q2 earnings season winds down with

Time For A Temporary Turnaround In GBP?
Marshall Gittler, Head of Investment research,  FXPRIMUS.com The pound has indeed suffered greatly recently. I’m reminded of a scene from Spitting Images , a political puppet show that used to appear on British TV. During one of the perennial sterling crises, it showed an anthropomorphic pound sign standing on

US Dollar Pushed Lower, But Do FOMC Minutes Really Trump Dudley?

Currencies: Cable And Aussie Ride The Data To Session Highs

Market Futures Point To A Mixed Open
Market futures point to a mixed open ahead of the bell this morning, with the Nasdaq in slightly positive territory, the Dow down in the low double digits and the S&P 500 basically unched. Most of the Dow laggards

Following Forex For Clues About The Fed
Maybe it is a natural bias after decades of making a living in the interbank forex market, but I strongly maintain that the one essential area that every trader and investor should follow closely is the foreign exchange market. In an increasingly globalized investment environment, tracking the global flow of capital

Dollar Snaps Back

In a Fed Meeting Minute, Everything Can Change
In the blink of an eye. In a heartbeat. In a New York minute. Life can and does change in these thinnest slices of time. And yet for Don Henley ’s anthem to the swiftness of change, and just how quickly those sharing our lives’ most precious moments can be lost, he ran against the norm for 6.22 minutes of endless

Markets Focus On Housing Starts, Building Permits And CPI
This morning, we see reports on Housing Starts and Building Permits, as well as the Consumer Price Index (CPI). At first blush, we’re seeing numbers in line with expectations thus, market futures are not being shaken up by the

Large-Cap ETF Dominance Fading
For the last few years, large-cap ETFs have been outperforming midcap ETFs and small-cap ETFs as the broader market fared better during a period of low volatility and lower return expectations. But this year, that has begun to change. While the S&P 500, as represented by SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust ( SPY ) , is up

Market Volume Is Expected To Slowdown
We’ve now begun to enter the post Q2 earnings season, meaning a slowdown in market volume between now and the Labor Day holiday is expected. Here in the U.S., positive job growth and low interest rates have set the

Dollar Eases To Start The New Week

USD/JPY Continues to Struggle

HCPs Big Dividend And Its New QCP Risks
By Blue Harbinger HCP Inc. (NYSE HCP ) is an attractive big dividend (6.0%) healthcare REIT that has been plagued by ongoing challenges with its largest tenant, HCR ManorCare. This week we received new information on HCP’s plans to

Dollar Shakes Off Weak Retail Sales, A Sign of Strength
Daily FX Market Roundup 08.12.16 By Kathy Lien, Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management The U.S. dollar ended the week lower against most major currencies.  We saw some dollar weakness at the start of the week but the disappointing retail sales report sealed the fate for the greenback.  

Weak Retail Sales and PPI Data To Look For
To begin the last day of the trading week following an exemplary day in the markets Thursday, where the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 all hit new highs we see new data on Retail Sales and the Producer Price

Dollar Rally Needs A Good US Retail Sales Number

Navigating Confused, Distorted Markets
I am sure I am not alone in believing that financial markets and the economic data that shapes them are in a nonsensical, contradictory phase right now. After over thirty years of working in, studying and following markets, there are certain relationships that are so ingrained that you just take them for granted. For

So What About Free Trade?

Jobless Claims Retained Weekly Stability
U.S. jobless claims retained their weekly steadiness this morning, reporting 266K claims. This is down 1000 from last week’s slightly revised number. The 4 week moving average rises a bit to 262,750, but remains firmly within a healthy 250

Why Wall Street's Depression Is Keeping You Out Of The Stock Market
We’ve talked in recent months about the power of positive surprises.   Earnings expectations have been ratcheted down.  Economic expectations have been ratcheted down.   Both set the table for positive surprises, which is very bullish for stocks. And, as we discussed yesterday, now the Fed appears to have

FX: Kiwi Hits A Ceiling, Cable Cumbles

Sterling Struggles To Find A Bid, While RBNZ Can't Knock Kiwi Down

Did OPEC Just Issue A Warning For Oil Prices In 2017?
OPEC upgraded on Wednesday its 2016 projections for world oil demand growth to 1.22 million barrels a day (mb/d), up by 30,000 b/d from its previous estimate, but warned that there were “lingering concerns” that refiners in the U.S. and Europe may cut processing rates, which could decrease the demand for crude.

Bernanke Gives Us Valuable Clues On The Fed
After the past two weeks, that included a Fed decision, more BOJ action, the approval of Japanese fiscal stimulus, a rate cut and the return to QE for the Bank of England, and a strong jobs report, this week is a relative snoozer. With that, every headline this week seems to contain the word Trump. Clearly the media

The U.S. Consumer: Are the Jetsons Jets Still On?
Mention George Jetson , and we not only get the picture but mentally hum the tune. Tell us the show was only produced for one season way back in 1962, and we think that can’t be right. The show was only produced for one season? But we all watched it for years. Those couldn’t have all been reruns! Were they? As is

Rio Olympics, Zika And More
The 2016 Rio Summer Olympics are in full swing, with the USA typically leading in the overall medal count behind big wins in the pool from Michael Phelps, Katie Ledecky and others, the women’s gymnastics team, etc. But we’ve

FX Consolidation Resolved in Favor of Weaker US Dollar
The robust US jobs report at the end of last week had arrested the down draft seen the previous week in response to the disappointing Q2 GDP report.   The mostly sideways movement has given way to a broader pullback today.  The greenback is heavier against all the major and most emerging market currencies today. 

Oil, DAX And Nikkei Should Outpace U.S. Stocks Through Year End
Yesterday we walked through five charts  from key global stock markets.  As we know, the S&P 500 has been leading the way, printing new highs this week.  U.S. stocks serve as a proxy on global economic stability confidence, so when stocks go up in the U.S., in this environment, there becomes a feedback loop of

Bernanke's Advice: More Emphasis On Data, Less On Fed Guidance
Former Fed Chair Bernanke keeps a blog at Brookings.    His latest post offers insight into how to think about Federal Reserve, and in particular, Fed officials’ understanding of the US economy.   Bernanke’s beginning point is the long-term forecasts of the Summary of Economic Projections–the last dots in the

Productivity and Labor Costs Disapponting
Data news ahead of the bell today Productivity and Labor Costs posted some worse than expected results. Q2 productivity fell 0.5%, whereas expectations were to have grown 0.5%. This follows a 0.6% read in Q1, meaning over the past

Europe Headed For Second Banking Crisis In Under A Decade
Post-Brexit pain is only starting to take hold and will continue to get worse. Investors around the world are growing increasingly nervous that Europe is sailing headfirst into a new banking crisis. Britain’s vote to exit the EU in June has only compounded those strains sending the banks into crisis mode. Although

M&A To Look For
Mergers and acquisitions are taking the early morning headlines to start the new trading week. Walmart  WMT  has closed its buyout of private e commerce firm Jet.com for $3.3 billion in cash and WMT shares. South African retailer Steinhoff

5 Key Market Charts For The Week Of Aug. 8, 2016

Forex Outlook: Will August 2016 Be Another Rollercoaster Ride?

What Does Friday's NFP Mean For The Fed?
Market Drivers August 8, 2016 CNY Trade Balance Better GE Industrial Production in line Nikkei 2.44% Dax 0.96% Oil $42/bbl Gold $1336/oz. Europe and Asia : CNY Trade Balance 52.3B vs. 48B EUR GE IP 0.8% vs. 0.8% EUR Sentix 4.2 vs. 3.6 North America : CAD Building Permits 08:30 USD Labor Market Conditions 10:00

Stock Market This Week: Proceed With Caution
What a difference a week makes. I have been off for this last week and paying little attention to the markets. Even so, I couldn’t help but notice a spectacularly good jobs number on Friday. The U.S. economy added 255,000 jobs last month, easily beating expectations and indicating that American businesses are, at

Is Global Stimulus Combo Punch Finally Coming?
Today, in response to the Brexit uncertainty ahead, the Bank of England cut rates and rolled out plans of a fresh round of government bond buying (and this time some corporate bonds as well). So now we have QE at work in three of the top four central banks in the world.   In initial response to the global financial

Are Spending Habits Changing?

US Jobs Data On Tap Today; Don't Expect Miracles

Upbeat July Jobs Report
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) July non farm payroll report was released this morning to a plurality of sighs of relief following the manic past 2 months in BLS jobs reads, analysts were a tad reticent to predict

Bank Of England Trims Rate, Markets Jump
Market futures jumped up this morning on news by the Bank of England (BOE) to cut interest rates 25 basis points for the first time since March 2009. BOE Governor Mark Carney also announced raising the central bank’s quantitative

Private Payrolls Rose in July
As in the first week of any new month, expectations rise as to how jobs growth has been going. If you had to choose one most important component analysts use to determine the health of the U.S. economy, the

Dear Job Market, Take This Indicator and Shove It!
Some songs are just destined to be belted out while speeding down an open highway with the all the windows down, your hair whipping in the wind and the dust flying. Donald Eugene Lytle, aka, Johnny Paycheck, delivered one in spades with his catchy, purposely grammatically incorrect rendition of David Allan Coe’s

The Bank of England Owns Today, But Tomorrow Is A Different Story

Why The Bear Market Could Be Over In A Flash
Oil entered bear market territory this week as WTI and Brent fell more than 20 percent from their June peaks. WTI even dropped below $40 per barrel for the first time in three months and oil traders have become incredibly pessimistic about the trajectory of oil prices, settling in for another summer swoon. But

Aussie, Yen Rally As Markets Challenge Policymakers

Greenback Slides Despite RBA Rate Cut And 7-year Low In UK Construction PMI

Stock Market Futures Are Down
Q2 earnings season may have passed the midway point last week, but plenty of important companies are reporting earnings this morning, mostly with good results. Stock market futures are down ahead of the market, but perhaps positive earnings in

FX: Can US Data Lift The Dollar?

Global Markets: Consolidation Featured

Another Potential Third Wave Set Up In The Making
By Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net In Elliott Wave parlance, 3rd waves are the segment of a trend move which provides the strongest market action. This is why we are always on the “lookout” for the set-ups for 3rd waves. Whereas silver has already seen the heart of a 3rd several weeks ago, we now may be

Global Markets: The Dog Days of August

Dollar Rebounds After Horrid Week

AUD/USD Forming Head and Shoulder: RBA Rate Decision Coming Up
Quite a shaky start of the week as the after-effects of Japan’s policy announcement from Friday kicked in. This week we are all ears to hear from Australia as AUDUSD forming head and shoulder chart pattern on the forex dance floor . Checkout the outlines here and I’ll get in more detail  during our private time 🙂

All Eyes On Q2 Earnings
Taking headlines from the continued barrage of Q2 earnings reports to begin the week are two mergers that have captured investors’ attention Ride sharing company Uber’s Chinese business Uber China has agreed to merge with its biggest ride sharing

ETFs In Race To Bottom When It Comes To Cost
One of the ongoing battles between ETF issuers is who can make an ETF cheaper to own. The pressure for cheap expense ratios is unrelenting, with now more than 260 funds that cost 0.20% or less to own. In fact, across the entire landscape of the ETF industry, there are only 109 funds that cost more than 1% to own

Aussie, Yen Poised for Big Moves in Asia

Global Markets: After This Week, Does August Matter?

BGC Partners: 7% Yield Plus Severe Undervaluation Equals 57% Upside
By Nat Stewart Before we get started on BGC Partners ( BGCP ), I wanted to provide an update on our view of RMR Group Inc. ( RMR ), a stock I wrote about in an article published at

BOJ Doubling Down On Stocks Is Big For All Stock Markets
The Bank of Japan acted last night, but it wasn’t the bazooka-type response markets were hoping for.  But it may be the response stock investors were hoping for.  The yen denominated Nikkei actually finished UP on the day.  And German and U.S. stocks have fared well too. As we’ve said, in this environment, what’s

A Brutal Week for Dollar, Is 100 Next for USD/JPY?
Daily FX Market Roundup 07.29.16 By Kathy Lien, Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management This past week was a brutal one for the U.S. dollar.The greenback traded lower against all of the major currencies with particularly stinging losses experienced against the Japanese Yen and New Zealand dollars.

Lackluster Second Quarter GDP Results
Second quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) results were released before Friday’s market open, and the results were, by any measure, quite lackluster 1.2% growth was recorded in the first read of Q2 GDP. This is only half of what

BGC Partners: 7% Yield Plus Severe Undervaluation Equal 57% Upside
By Nat Stewart Before we get started on BGCP ( BGCP ), I wanted to provide an update on our view of RMR Group Inc., a stock I wrote about in an article published at Seeking Alpha on January

Will BoJ Start Global Disarmament Of Central Banks?
Marshall Gittler, Head of Investment research,  FXPRIMUS.com The Bank of Japan (BoJ) Friday passed up the chance to increase its monetary stimulus, as many market observers had expected, and instead just tinkered around the edges with some token adjustments. Not only that, but it also called for a review of the

Kuroda Hesitates, Yen Advances; Focus Turns to Europe and North America
Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda appears to be the central banker that the markets have the most difficulty in reading.   The activist Governor provide the barest of tweaks to what is by nearly any reckoning among the most aggressive monetary policies by a high income economy.  Moreover, much of the important data

BoJ Fails To Deliver; USD/JPY Takes A Hit
Market Drivers July 29, 2016 BOJ program fails to impress Cable drops on EOM EURGBP demand Nikkei -0.69 Dax 0.05% Oil $42/bbl Gold $1349/oz. Europe and Asia : AUD PPI 0.1% vs. -0.2% EUR GE Retail Sales -0.1% vs. 0.0% GBP UK Mortgage Approvals 64.8K vs. 65.4K EUR EZ CPI 0.2% vs. 0.3% North America : USD GDP

Is the Economy Really Growing at 1.2%
Headline second quarter advance GDP estimate is 1.2 %, up from last quarter’s downward revised 0.8 %. Yet the year-over-year GDP growth declined from 1.6 % to 1.2 %. The advance estimate of second quarter 2016 Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a positive 1.2 %. This is a moderate improvement from the

Greenspan 'Nervous' Bond Prices Too High As Treasurys Sell Off
(Bloomberg) — Alan Greenspan is worried bond prices have risen too high. “We get very nervous when the stock price index goes to high P/E, we ought to be somewhat nervous when the bond rate does the same,” the former Fed chairman said in an interview Thursday with Bloomberg Television. Some bond market metrics

Good News Hidden In Bad GDP Read
This morning’s disappointing GDP read contained some mixed signals, and in some ways could be seen as a positive, at least for certain sectors. It was weakness in business investment and spending that resulted in the low growth number (1.2 percent versus expectations of 2.6 percent), but that was in part offset by

Bank Of Japan Tonight Is A Huge Event For All Stock Markets
As we’ve discussed, the big event of the week is the Bank of Japan decision on monetary policy tonight.  Today the speculation is that Abe presented his big government spending plan earlier than expected, and bigger than expected, to put pressure on the Bank of Japan to act now, rather than later. But as we discuss

Currencies: No Love For The Buck Post FOMC
Market Drivers July 28, 2016 Dollar down across the board post FOMC GE Employment improves Nikkei -0.69 Dax 0.05% Oil $42/bbl Gold $1349/oz. Europe and Asia : AUD Export Prices 1.4% vs. 2.9% EUR GE Unemployment -7K vs. -2K North America : USD Weekly jobless claims 8:30 USD Trade in Goods 8:30 The dollar

Dollar Pulls Back Further Post-FOMC
After reversing lower yesterday after the FOMC statement, the US dollar has continued to move lower against the major currencies, save sterling. While the market is not fully confident of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia, indicative pricing in the derivative markets suggest a UK rate cut has been fully

Fed Says Risks Have Diminished As It Leaves Rate Unchanged
(Bloomberg) — The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged while saying risks to the U.S. economy have subsided and the labor market is getting tighter, suggesting conditions are getting more favorable for an increase in borrowing costs. “Near-term risks to the economic outlook have diminished,” the Federal

More Q2 Earnings To Come
So many more Q2 earnings reports since regular trading ended Wednesday afternoon, it’s literally difficult to count them all. But as econ data begins to take a larger role in what investors are looking for beginning next week with

The 50 Altered States of American Housing
Oh the horror! Movies that is. Its summertime and once again they’re out there, all those shriek-worthy trailers just waiting to pounce. They’ll grab you by the psyche and parade just for you and your mind’s viewing pleasure an all-inclusive review of your horror genre past. And if you happen to have been born

Why Apple Shares Should Be 30-40 Percent Higher
Yesterday we talked about Apple ( AAPL ) earnings that were coming after the market close.  Given the better than expected earnings that have been reported by other tech bellwethers like Microsoft ( MSFT ), Intel ( INTC ) and QUALCOMM ( QCOM ), we thought the stage was set for a nice positive surprise out of Apple,

Yen Falls On Fiscal Stimulus, While Sterling And Aussie Can't Sustain Upticks
As uncertainty over Japan’s fiscal stimulus roiled the yen and domestic equities, Prime Minister Abe was forced to announce his fiscal intentions earlier than he initially intended .  The JPY27 trillion (~$265 bln) package.    The details are far from clear, which may help explain why the dollar is in the middle

Another Wild Ride for USD/JPY
Market Drivers July 27, 2016 USDJPY spikes to 106.50 on rumors of 50 year bonds UK GDP better Nikkei 1.39% Dax 0.84% Oil $42/bbl Gold $1328/oz.. Europe and Asia : AUD AU CPI at 0.5% vs. 0.4% eyed GBP UK GDP 0.6% vs. 0.5% North America :  USD Durable Goods 8:30 USD FOMC 14:00 Another wild night of rumors sent

BA,GSK,CMCSA Coming Up With Q2 Earnings
The Q2 earnings checklist just keeps getting longer. After a busy session after the bell yesterday, we see another long list of reporting companies this morning. Boeing  BA  is up 1.75% ahead of regular Wednesday trading on a Q2

Will FOMC Help or Hurt the Dollar?
Daily FX Market Roundup 07.26.16 By Kathy Lien, Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management Taking a look at the day to day change in the U.S. dollar, it may seem that there was very little consistency in the performance of the greenback ahead of Wednesday’s monetary policy announcement.  However if

Apple Earnings Bigger Catalyst Than Fed This Week
Over the next eight business days, we’ll hear from the Fed, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, we’ll get a vote on fiscal stimulus in Japan and we’ll get another U.S. jobs report.  And earnings of the most widely held stock in the world, Apple, to be reported after the close today, is not a too far behind, in

Is the Pullback Over?
By Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net Much has been written over the last several months about the metals market. In fact, I have seen an explosion in the number of people who are providing their “opinion” about this market, most of whom I have never heard from in the prior 4 years. But, you know what they say

Feeling The Rising Tide of Q2 Earnings
Feeling the rising tide of Q2 earnings season yet? Following a first couple weeks of a mostly positive trickle of earnings reports released, we’ve now gone total open spigot. Unfortunately, the news coming down the pipe isn’t as favorable,

USD/JPY Crumbles on Puny Stimulus Projections
Market Drivers July 26, 2016 USDJPY sinks 2 big figures on disappointment of stimulus Cable bounces off lows Nikkei -1.60% Dax 0.14% Oil $42/bbl Gold $1329/oz. Europe and Asia : GBP UK BBA Loans 40B vs. 38B North America :  USD PMI Services 9:45 USD Consumer Confidence 10:00 USD New Home Sales 10:00 USDJPY

Global Markets: Yen Soars Amid Stimulus Confusion and Doubts
The strength of the Japanese yen is the main development in the foreign exchange market today . It has gained nearly 1.5% as short-term participants grow skeptical of the kind of stimulus that had driven the yen around7.5% lower between July 8 and July 21’s six-week high.  The pendulum of market sentiment has swung

Forget The Glut – This Is Why Oil Prices Will Rise
The rate of oil production decline in the United States will accelerate in the 3rd quarter. It has already started. Per the EIA: In the last six weeks: > U.S. oil production has declined 222,000 barrels per day. > U.S. oil imports have increased by 512,000 barrels per day. Crude oil in U.S. storage facilities

Is This The Next Big Headache For Oil Prices?
When oil analysts look at the markets to try to get a sense of where oil prices are heading, one of the great unknowns, at least in the U.S. shale industry, is the large volume of drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs). As oil prices began collapsing two years ago, shale drillers increasingly decided to defer the

Q2 Earnings Busiest Today
With nearly 1000 publicly traded companies reporting quarterly earnings this week including 38% of the S&P 500 index, more than the total of S&P companies that have already reported in Q2 we are now entering the busiest week of

Dividend ETFs Today's New Fixed Income Vehicle
With global yields compressing more and more every day, the hunt for yield has turned its attention to dividend ETFs , which for some of these funds is a providing a bounty missing from bond ETFs. “Stocks have one thing in their favor at any price: Dividend yields cannot go negative, unlike the payout on bonds,”

Is It Bazooka Time For The BOJ?
As we discussed last week, the G20 finance ministers and central banks met in China over the weekend.  We thought the calls for more fiscal stimulus would come.  Monetary policy has been stretched about as far as it can go. What’s been lacking in the global recovery is some easing on the government spending side.

Brexit Bites: UK PMIs At 41 Month Lows
Market Drivers July 22, 2016 UK PMI hit 41 month lows EZ PMI mostly in line Nikkei -0.89% Dax -0.03% Oil $44/bbl Gold $1324/oz. Europe and Asia: EUR EZ Flash PMI 52.9 vs. 52.5 GBP UK PMI Manufacturing 47.4 vs. 48.7 GBP UK PMI Services 49.1 vs. 48.7 North America : CAD CPI 8:30 CAD Retail Sales 8:30 USD PMI

Flash PMIs Show Brexit Impact Localilzed
As the week draws to a close, there are three main developments in the capital markets.  First, the profit-taking seen in US equities yesterday has continued in Asia and Europe today.   The MSCI Asia Pacific Index and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 in Europe are both off around 0.5%.   The second development is continued

Dow Finally Closed Lower At The Bell
So the Dow finally closed lower at the bell on Thursday, and the Q2 earnings juggernaut finally brought some less than positive news. Market futures are up in the pre market Friday, so perhaps we’re seeing a bounce back

Searching For Economic Direction
Earlier this week I analyzed sea container counts at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach and wrote: The rolling averages are now decelerating for exports but accelerating for imports. Under normal situations, this is signalling an improving USA economy with a slowing global economy. Logic dictates that the

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