Tis the season for Election Polls. Approval, General Elections, Presidential, State, House, Senate and if these are not enough the Public Policy Polling group will gladly make one up just for you. Unfortunately they never breakdown any demographic information on the sample used which is the reason why they were not included in our analysis of General Election Polls.
Post the Republican and Democratic Conventions each of the major main stream media polls showed not only a convention bounce for Crooked Hillary Rotten Clinton but potentially enough of a lead in the Real Clear Politics and Huffington Post average of polls to cause Goldie Taylor at the Daily Beast to declare Trump Out of Time, This Race Is Over!! Not so Fast Goldie (love the handle though).
Digging deeper into each of the poll samples and comparing them against the July Gallop generally accepted national breakdown of Democrats, Republicans and Independents then adjusting for this national sample left us scratching our heads. This election is not only still very close but Trump may actually be leading based on the Bradley Effect. Listed below are the actual General Election Poll results recently released and adjusted for the actual National electorate breakdown by party affiliation.
General Election Polls listed at Real Clear Politics.
FOX News – Clinton +11% adjusted Clinton +2%
NBC Survey Monkey – Clinton +8% adjusted Trump +2%
CNN/ORC – Clinton +9% adjusted Clinton +5%
CBS News – Clinton +6% adjusted Clinton +2%
Reuters/Ipsos – Clinton +4% adjusted Clinton +2%
NBS/WSJ – Clinton +9% adjusted Clinton +5%
McClatchy/Marist – Clinton +15% adjusted Clinton +7%
The full results of the study are available by clicking on this Gallop Adjusted Polling analysis. This study will be redone following Labor Day the unofficial kick-off to Novemeber 8th and following the second Presidential Debate on October 9th, 2016.
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